ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
aapang
0x104171232971a6db8cf938f76fdbebbb81c5f452
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 20% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 20%Verified PnL#900 of 1130
Beats 22%30-day PnL#629 of 810
Beats 48%Win rate#481 of 928
Beats 20%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#760 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board51
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-01
Last seen2026-09-19
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$3K
Verified lifetime PnL
$10.21MVolume
64.6%Win rate (sample) · n=263
-0.02%PnL ÷ Volume
$4K7-day PnL
-$64430-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$2,578
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $2only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,903partial
Liquidity rewards$851
-0.03% ROI22.4% Win rate · n=759
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$720.2K · loses the most in Sports -$68.0K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$19.8KSpread: Knicks (-8.5)Sports · Knicks
- +$19.4KCeltics vs. NuggetsSports · Nuggets
- +$19.0KWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?Weather · Yes
- +$19.0KWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3?Weather · Yes
- +$19.0KWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 12?Weather · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$23.7KThunder vs. HeatSports · Thunder
- -$16.3KSpread: Raptors (-13.5)Sports · Raptors
- -$15.6KCeltics vs. Nets: O/U 215.5Sports · Under
- -$14.4KSpread: 76ers (-6.5)Sports · Pelicans
- -$13.6KNuggets vs. SpursSports · Spurs
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 2987+ losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$298.3K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$3KVerified lifetime PnL
$38KBelow board-day sum
51Days on board
$35KBoard-day sum
$4K7-day PnL
-$64430-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $2K |
| 2026-05 | 6 | $2K |
| 2026-06 | 11 | $24K |
| 2026-07 | 9 | $963 |
| 2026-08 | 11 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 11 | $4K |
Which boards
Weather 47Sports 6
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
92% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $2K (99% maker / 1% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio92%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$2K
Maker rebate$2K
Taker rebate$16
Maker share99%
Taker share1%
Window2026-03-22 → 2026-07-17
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$35K
Verified lifetime PnL-$3K
Verification gap-$38K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)