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← All boardsrussell110320
0x118689b24aead1d6e9507b8068d056b2ec4f051b
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 54% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 54%Verified PnL#284 of 624
Beats 64%30-day PnL#214 of 594
Beats 60%Win rate#233 of 592
Beats 86%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#86 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board54
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-01
Last seen2026-10-12
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$68K
Verified lifetime PnL
$2.05MVolume
69.6%Win rate · n=224
3.32%PnL ÷ Volume
$7K7-day PnL
$17K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$67.6K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $2,024only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$84partial
Liquidity rewards$219
3.29% ROI65.5% Win rate · n=238
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$45.8K · loses the most in Politics -$13.4K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$10.3KWill February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?Weather · Yes
- +$8,419Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?Weather · Yes
- +$8,319Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?Weather · Yes
- +$8,148Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?Tech & science · Yes
- +$7,9342025 August third hottest on record?Weather · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$12.5KWill global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 2025?Weather · Yes
- -$11.4KWill global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in April 2025?Weather · Yes
- -$10.9KWill Susan Crawford win by 10% or more?Politics · No
- -$7,476Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025?Weather · No / Yes
- -$6,468Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?Tech & science · No / Yes
Covers the 228 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$68KVerified lifetime PnL
$35KEarned off the board
54Days on board
$32KBoard-day sum
$7K7-day PnL
$17K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 6 | $6K |
| 2026-05 | 11 | $3K |
| 2026-06 | 7 | $2K |
| 2026-07 | 14 | $6K |
| 2026-08 | 8 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 4 | $4K |
| 2026-10 | 4 | $10K |
Which boards
Weather 53Sports 3
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
43% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $84 (61% maker / 39% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
unknown (methods disagree)
Passive ratio43%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-23
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$84
Maker rebate$51
Taker rebate$32
Maker share61%
Taker share39%
Window2026-05-01 → 2026-10-08
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$32K
Verified lifetime PnL$68K
Verification gap$35K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)