ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsdedidanc
0x11f8a22001686b0e40687c4c37c91e3428a0ed31
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 15% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 15%Verified PnL#530 of 624
Beats 20%30-day PnL#474 of 594
Beats 65%Win rate#202 of 592
Beats 86%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#85 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board9
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-08-12
Last seen2026-10-08
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$4K
Verified lifetime PnL
$358KVolume
72.1%Win rate · n=165
3.33%PnL ÷ Volume
-$4K7-day PnL
-$2K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$4,269
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,975only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$205partial
Liquidity rewards$102
-1.19% ROI47.4% Win rate · n=251
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Tech & science +$12.8K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$2,864Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech & science · No / Yes
- +$1,674Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 7, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- +$1,092Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- +$826Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Tech & science · No / Yes
- +$789Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Politics · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$3,338Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$1,473Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?Tech & science · Yes / No
- -$1,172Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?Tech & science · Yes / No
- -$593Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$555Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Tech & science · Yes
Covers the 219 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$4KVerified lifetime PnL
$15KBelow board-day sum
9Days on board
$11KBoard-day sum
-$4K7-day PnL
-$2K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 2 | $1K |
| 2026-09 | 1 | $3K |
| 2026-10 | 6 | $6K |
Which boards
Tech 7Politics 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
62% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $205 (16% maker / 84% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio62%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Taker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$205
Maker rebate$33
Taker rebate$172
Maker share16%
Taker share84%
Window2026-08-05 → 2026-10-20
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$11K
Verified lifetime PnL-$4K
Verification gap-$15K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)