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alliswell
0x1521b47bf0c41f6b7fd3ad41cdec566812c8f23e
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 85% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 85%Verified PnL#168 of 1130
Beats 27%30-day PnL#589 of 810
Beats 68%Win rate#292 of 928
Beats 36%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#608 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board26
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-16
Last seen2026-06-26
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$445K
Verified lifetime PnL
$116.38MVolume
74.7%Win rate (sample) · n=392
0.38%PnL ÷ Volume
$07-day PnL
-$030-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$445.4K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $5only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$4,959partial
Liquidity rewards$20.3K
0.38% ROI74.6% Win rate · n=393
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$545.5K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$204.6KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$122.7KWill Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Politics · Yes
- +$111.4KIsrael strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$96.0KIsrael strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$86.2KWill Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Politics · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$151.7KIran closes its airspace by May 24?Politics · No / Yes
- -$110.7KWill People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Politics · Yes
- -$60.0KWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$59.2KWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$59.0KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 1 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$0.19). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$445KVerified lifetime PnL
$364KEarned off the board
26Days on board
$82KBoard-day sum
$07-day PnL
-$030-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 6 | $61K |
| 2026-05 | 10 | $15K |
| 2026-06 | 10 | $6K |
Which boards
Politics 24Mentions 3Culture 3All markets 1
Method breakdown
Execution stylenot measured yet
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
visible rebate $5K (97% maker / 3% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$5K
Maker rebate$5K
Taker rebate$153
Maker share97%
Taker share3%
Window2026-02-14 → 2026-07-30
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$82K
Verified lifetime PnL$445K
Verification gap$364K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)