ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
PMTraderAdam
0x154794795d978c5890b3f69264311f0bd966d066
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 49% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
At a glance
$33K
Verified lifetime PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$13.8K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$1,682US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$1,513Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics · Yes
- +$1,230Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$1,220Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Tech & science · Yes
- +$1,215Will Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon?Culture · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$1,072Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · Yes
- -$1,028US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · No
- -$978US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · No
- -$948Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?Culture · Yes
- -$737Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 46 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$8,617). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | $602 |
| 2026-05 | 9 | $1K |
| 2026-06 | 9 | $1K |
| 2026-07 | 13 | $1K |
| 2026-08 | 3 | $1K |
| 2026-09 | 7 | $353 |
Which boards
Method breakdown
Measured layers
91% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)