ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
ms1910
0x154e1febdde45605dc2ef3f83a2e1905d1c2911f
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 29% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 29%Verified PnL#811 of 1156
Beats 48%Win rate#495 of 963
Beats 75%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#244 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board8
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-07-08
Last seen2026-09-14
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$3K
Verified lifetime PnL
$110KVolume
64.7%Win rate (sample) · n=399
2.15%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$2,939
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $79only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$64
2.67% ROI49.4% Win rate · n=522
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$1,856 · loses the most in Culture -$62.65
Top 5 winning markets
- +$747Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?Tech & science · Yes / No
- +$451Cardinals vs. RamsSports · Cardinals
- +$276Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August?Tech & science · Yes / No
- +$261Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?Tech & science · Yes / No
- +$198Will Spain be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup?Sports · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$217Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Politics · No
- -$137Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?Tech & science · No
- -$124Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Politics · Yes / No
- -$85.1Will Loic Meillard (SUI) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Men's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Sports · No
- -$84.25Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 123 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$3,474). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$3KVerified lifetime PnL
$2KEarned off the board
8Days on board
$746Board-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 3 | $498 |
| 2026-08 | 3 | $239 |
| 2026-09 | 2 | $8 |
Which boards
Finance 5Politics 1Sports 1Mentions 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
53% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
unknown (methods disagree)
Passive ratio53%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-06
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$746
Verified lifetime PnL$3K
Verification gap$2K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)