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0x159f17cb81522d87c48447e14cf89af94e984043
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 15% of the 625 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 15%Verified PnL#529 of 625
Beats 31%Win rate#390 of 566
Beats 8%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#543 of 592
Compared with the 625 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board5
Archive span201 days
First seen2026-09-04
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$5K
Verified lifetime PnL
$469KVolume
54%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-1.07%PnL ÷ Volume
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-10-30
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$5,222
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $564only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$0
-1.11% ROI30% Win rate · n=719
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$4,933
Top 5 winning markets
- +$822Jazz vs. CavaliersSports · Jazz / Cavaliers
- +$772Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$725Rockets vs. Trail BlazersSports · Trail Blazers / Rockets
- +$710Rockets vs. KingsSports · Kings
- +$673Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?Culture · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$563Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ETCrypto · Down
- -$28276ers vs. RaptorsSports · Raptors
- -$236Bucks vs. LakersSports · Lakers
- -$221Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?Culture · Yes
- -$202Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?Culture · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-10-30
-$5KVerified lifetime PnL
$5KBelow board-day sum
5Days on board
$193Board-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | 5 | $193 |
Which boards
Culture 5
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
0% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
aggressive (taker)
Passive ratio0%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$193
Verified lifetime PnL-$5K
Verification gap-$5K
Trade on Polymarket
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Archived 2026-10-30 · not refreshed since then · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-30 (201 snapshots)