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0x164cb85e1718d0a8f95d588b08fbb52b34233e39
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 37% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 37%Verified PnL#392 of 624
Beats 48%30-day PnL#309 of 594
Beats 39%Win rate#360 of 592
Beats 85%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#89 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board6
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-06-14
Last seen2026-09-21
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$25K
Verified lifetime PnL
$654KVolume
57.3%Win rate (sample) · n=398
3.16%PnL ÷ Volume
$2K7-day PnL
$5K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$24.7K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $303only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$358partial
Liquidity rewards$135
3.78% ROI29.4% Win rate · n=775
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$14.3K · loses the most in Sports -$762
Top 5 winning markets
- +$486Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on October 23?Weather · No
- +$386Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?Politics · No
- +$380Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 16?Weather · Yes
- +$379Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 6?Weather · Yes
- +$359Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on October 22?Weather · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$364Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 6?Weather · Yes
- -$268Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 6?Weather · No / Yes
- -$189Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9AM ETCrypto · Up / Down
- -$173Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 6?Weather · Yes
- -$158Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31?Weather · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$25KVerified lifetime PnL
$24KEarned off the board
6Days on board
$249Board-day sum
$2K7-day PnL
$5K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 1 | $57 |
| 2026-07 | 1 | $63 |
| 2026-08 | 2 | $83 |
| 2026-09 | 2 | $46 |
Which boards
Weather 6
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
40% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $358 (56% maker / 44% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio40%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$358
Maker rebate$199
Taker rebate$158
Maker share56%
Taker share44%
Window2026-04-03 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$249
Verified lifetime PnL$25K
Verification gap$24K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)