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longdated-poli
0x167a807987c8da3aea97bc36cb394fc04d3c91d5
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 8% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 8%Verified PnL#1056 of 1156
Beats 0%Win rate#962 of 963
Beats 10%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#892 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board18
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-04-29
Last seen2026-09-18
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$70K
Verified lifetime PnL
$6.92MVolume
2%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-0.83%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$69.6K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $74only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$140.1K
-1.01% ROI1.85% Win rate · n=433
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
No category in profit; worst is Politics -$17.1K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$594Will Biden finish his term?Politics · Yes
- +$587Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?Politics · No
- +$550Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Sports · Miami Marlins
- +$534Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Politics · No
- +$340Knicks vs. HawksSports · Hawks
Top 5 losing markets
- -$2,108Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Politics · No
- -$1,223Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Politics · No
- -$928US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Politics · No
- -$860Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Sports · Nuggets
- -$785Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?Culture · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 33 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$446). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$70KVerified lifetime PnL
$71KBelow board-day sum
18Days on board
$2KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $465 |
| 2026-06 | 3 | $259 |
| 2026-07 | 4 | $333 |
| 2026-08 | 5 | $426 |
| 2026-09 | 5 | $186 |
Which boards
Finance 6Culture 5Politics 5Sports 2Tech 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
66% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio66%
Fills measured498
Window ends2026-10-12
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$2K
Verified lifetime PnL-$70K
Verification gap-$71K
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Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)