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cmarx
0x173314380de52766200850634f85a1b7a88b9411
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 26% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 26%Verified PnL#827 of 1130
Beats 67%Win rate#297 of 928
Beats 21%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#753 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board18
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-06-24
Last seen2026-09-20
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$2K
Verified lifetime PnL
$277KVolume
74.6%Win rate · n=114
-0.01%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$1,948
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $897only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$18
0.70% ROI56.7% Win rate · n=150
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$3,046 · loses the most in Culture -$928
Top 5 winning markets
- +$1,813Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$1,729Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?Tech & science · No
- +$1,221US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$1,215Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics · No / Yes
- +$1,155Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$2,678Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$1,269Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Culture · No
- -$1,030US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$960Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Tech & science · No
- -$764NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
Covers all 154 closed positions this wallet has. Includes 36 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$12.1K). Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$2KVerified lifetime PnL
$229Earned off the board
18Days on board
$2KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 3 | $616 |
| 2026-07 | 7 | $441 |
| 2026-08 | 6 | $559 |
| 2026-09 | 2 | $103 |
Which boards
Politics 8Tech 8Finance 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
38% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
unknown (methods disagree)
Passive ratio38%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-12
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$2K
Verified lifetime PnL$2K
Verification gap$229
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)