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0x1838cca016850ac7185a9b149fe7d0bd2d6629b4
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 64% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 64%Verified PnL#221 of 624
Beats 27%30-day PnL#433 of 594
Beats 8%Win rate#543 of 592
Beats 86%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#87 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board13
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-31
Last seen2026-06-09
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$135K
Verified lifetime PnL
$4.22MVolume
35.7%Win rate (sample) · n=395
3.20%PnL ÷ Volume
-$177-day PnL
-$1230-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$134.9K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $235only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$284partial
Liquidity rewards$4
3.20% ROI16% Win rate · n=880
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$52.4K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$8,378Will Houston Texans draft Ty Simpson in the 2026 pro football draft?Sports · No / Yes
- +$8,083Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 23?Weather · No
- +$7,447Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 22?Weather · Yes / No
- +$7,118Valorant: Esprit Shōnen vs Galions - Map 1 WinnerSports · Galions / Esprit Shōnen
- +$6,881Games Total: O/U 2.5Sports · Under / Over
Top 5 losing markets
- -$6,560Will Kansas City Chiefs draft Ty Simpson in the 2026 pro football draft?Sports · Yes
- -$5,638Games Total: O/U 2.5Sports · Over / Under
- -$3,365Will San Francisco 49ers draft Ty Simpson in the 2026 pro football draft?Sports · Yes
- -$2,721Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?Sports · No / Yes
- -$2,014Map Handicap: FF (-1.5) vs ghosts (+1.5)Sports · ghosts / Fire Flux Esports
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$135KVerified lifetime PnL
$117KEarned off the board
13Days on board
$18KBoard-day sum
-$177-day PnL
-$1230-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | $3K |
| 2026-04 | 4 | $14K |
| 2026-05 | 5 | $684 |
| 2026-06 | 3 | $868 |
Which boards
Weather 11Sports 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
71% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $284 (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio71%
Fills measured498
Window ends2026-08-28
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$284
Maker rebate$284
Taker rebate$0
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-04-02 → 2026-08-25
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$18K
Verified lifetime PnL$135K
Verification gap$117K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)