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firegold
0x1d5f88f1b97317cccad804374e5bd847512e634d
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 48% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 48%Verified PnL#583 of 1130
Beats 55%30-day PnL#360 of 810
Beats 64%Win rate#332 of 928
Beats 59%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#383 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board45
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-27
Last seen2026-09-21
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$32K
Verified lifetime PnL
$2.52MVolume
72.9%Win rate (sample) · n=398
1.25%PnL ÷ Volume
$10K7-day PnL
$9K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$31.6K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $36only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,663partial
Liquidity rewards$2,697
1.26% ROI56.2% Win rate · n=516
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Finance +$48.2K · loses the most in Sports -$346
Top 5 winning markets
- +$7,591Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$5,944Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$4,209Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?Finance · No
- +$3,806No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$3,482No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$8,098Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?Politics · Yes
- -$4,935Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Finance · Yes
- -$2,827Will Trump visit China by April 30?Politics · No / Yes
- -$2,500No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?Politics · Yes
- -$2,452Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?Finance · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 118 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$30.3K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$32KVerified lifetime PnL
$25KEarned off the board
45Days on board
$7KBoard-day sum
$10K7-day PnL
$9K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | $396 |
| 2026-05 | 11 | $2K |
| 2026-06 | 6 | $2K |
| 2026-07 | 8 | $562 |
| 2026-08 | 10 | $1K |
| 2026-09 | 8 | $896 |
Which boards
Finance 40Crypto 5Politics 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
93% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $2K (86% maker / 14% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio93%
Fills measured497
Window ends2026-10-11
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$2K
Maker rebate$1K
Taker rebate$238
Maker share86%
Taker share14%
Window2026-03-31 → 2026-11-04
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$7K
Verified lifetime PnL$32K
Verification gap$25K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)