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0x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 98% of the 622 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 98%Verified PnL#11 of 622
Beats 68%Win rate#177 of 568
Beats 45%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#322 of 591
Compared with the 622 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board50
Archive span202 days
First seen2026-03-19
Last seen2026-07-13
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$3.92M
Verified lifetime PnL
$477.31MVolume
73.5%Win rate (sample) · n=396
0.82%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-10-31
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$3.92M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $5,922only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$233.4Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$427.5K
0.82% ROI34% Win rate · n=856
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$1.58M
Top 5 winning markets
- +$1.04MWill Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?Sports · No
- +$655.5KUFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)Sports · Sean Strickland / Khamzat Chimaev
- +$464.4KWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?Sports · No
- +$458.3KWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07?Sports · Yes
- +$452.5K76ers vs. CelticsSports · 76ers
Top 5 losing markets
- -$474.2KWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?Sports · No
- -$425.9KRolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerSports · Carlos Alcaraz
- -$405.0KWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11?Sports · Yes
- -$393.1KMavericks vs. CavaliersSports · Cavaliers
- -$389.2KWuning 2: Sergey Fomin vs Moerani BouzigeSports · Sergey Fomin / Moerani Bouzige
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-10-31
$3.92MVerified lifetime PnL
$1.20MBelow board-day sum
50Days on board
$5.19MBoard-day sum
—7-day PnL
—30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 6 | $1.51M |
| 2026-04 | 9 | $2.50M |
| 2026-05 | 16 | $1.13M |
| 2026-06 | 13 | $30K |
| 2026-07 | 6 | $18K |
Which boards
Sports 49All markets 26
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
99% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $233K (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Head-to-heads with other top wallets:
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio99%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-06-11
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$233K
Maker rebate$233K
Taker rebate$0
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-03-05 → 2026-05-15
Profit composition
Net negative (window)
Trade cash$0
Rebate$0
Net total$0
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$5.11M
Verified lifetime PnL$3.92M
Verification gap-$1.20M
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Generated 2026-10-31 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-31 (202 snapshots)