ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
Chia
0x2bd2574062fb6d8556ddb1050955f43dd9d4c21b
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 87% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 87%Verified PnL#144 of 1130
Beats 31%30-day PnL#554 of 810
Beats 7%Win rate#861 of 928
Beats 99%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#7 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board5
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-05-09
Last seen2026-09-01
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$544K
Verified lifetime PnL
$2.54MVolume
38.1%Win rate · n=42
21.45%PnL ÷ Volume
$4967-day PnL
$43130-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$544.1K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $16only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)none seenpartial
Liquidity rewards$85
21.4% ROI36.4% Win rate · n=44
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$548.1K · loses the most in Finance -$1,599
Top 5 winning markets
- +$528.4KTrump wins every swing state?Politics · Yes
- +$55.9KWill Trump win 7 swing states?Politics · Yes
- +$11.1K2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104Politics · Yes
- +$4,069Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?Politics · Yes
- +$1,721US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Politics · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$12.5KWill Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
- -$8,099Will a Republican win Maine Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
- -$8,088Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?Politics · Yes
- -$4,881Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?Politics · Yes
- -$4,110Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?Politics · Yes
Covers all 46 closed positions this wallet has. Includes 2 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$11.0K). Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$544KVerified lifetime PnL
$541KEarned off the board
5Days on board
$3KBoard-day sum
$4967-day PnL
$43130-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 3 | $3K |
| 2026-07 | 1 | $27 |
| 2026-09 | 1 | $21 |
Which boards
Politics 5
Method breakdown
Execution stylenot measured yet
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
visible rebate none in the activity feed
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
No visible rebate
Visible rebateNone seen
Window—
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$3K
Verified lifetime PnL$544K
Verification gap$541K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)