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0x2ef2887692386bebad6ef3df9fd3d0e223047f72
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 13% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 13%Verified PnL#542 of 624
Beats 25%30-day PnL#441 of 594
Beats 6%Win rate#556 of 592
Beats 15%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#527 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board56
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-25
Last seen2026-10-09
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$10K
Verified lifetime PnL
$10.19MVolume
33.1%Win rate (sample) · n=353
-0.20%PnL ÷ Volume
$2K7-day PnL
-$21330-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$10.1K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $338only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$376partial
Liquidity rewards$186
-0.10% ROI14.1% Win rate · n=833
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$253.2K · loses the most in Sports -$2,320
Top 5 winning markets
- +$6,424Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$5,880Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$4,916Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$4,900Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$4,900Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?Culture · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$2,523Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Culture · Yes
- -$2,495Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Culture · Yes
- -$2,495Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Culture · Yes
- -$2,495Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?Culture · Yes
- -$2,495Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?Culture · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$10KVerified lifetime PnL
$37KBelow board-day sum
56Days on board
$27KBoard-day sum
$2K7-day PnL
-$21330-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 6 | $834 |
| 2026-06 | 11 | $3K |
| 2026-07 | 16 | $4K |
| 2026-08 | 15 | $4K |
| 2026-09 | 6 | $11K |
| 2026-10 | 2 | $5K |
Which boards
Culture 54Weather 3Sports 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
83% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $376 (70% maker / 30% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio83%
Fills measured498
Window ends2026-09-28
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$376
Maker rebate$263
Taker rebate$113
Maker share70%
Taker share30%
Window2026-05-21 → 2026-10-28
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$27K
Verified lifetime PnL-$10K
Verification gap-$37K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)