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0x31436bde35c25c3714e0c3e7fbd14a22107581b1
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 10% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 10%Verified PnL#561 of 624
Beats 37%30-day PnL#369 of 594
Beats 81%Win rate#109 of 592
Beats 4%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#592 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board34
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-30
Last seen2026-10-12
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$41K
Verified lifetime PnL
$2.06MVolume
83%Win rate (sample) · n=399
-1.99%PnL ÷ Volume
$2K7-day PnL
$2K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$40.9K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $53only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$14partial
Liquidity rewards$1,018
-1.99% ROI75.6% Win rate · n=439
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$14.6K · loses the most in Tech & science -$5,839
Top 5 winning markets
- +$10.4KUS x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Politics · No
- +$4,866US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?Politics · No
- +$3,543US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?Politics · No
- +$2,970US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?Politics · No
- +$2,799Will Elizabeth Holmes launch a coin by December 31?Crypto · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$6,114Will Dave Portnoy launch a coin before March?Culture · No
- -$4,806Will Kanye launch a coin in February?Crypto · No
- -$4,359US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?Politics · No
- -$4,288Iran strike on Israel in June?Politics · No
- -$3,729Will Trump call Carney a "Governor" before June?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$41KVerified lifetime PnL
$53KBelow board-day sum
34Days on board
$12KBoard-day sum
$2K7-day PnL
$2K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | $1K |
| 2026-04 | 3 | $746 |
| 2026-05 | 8 | $5K |
| 2026-06 | 7 | $2K |
| 2026-07 | 6 | $1K |
| 2026-08 | 4 | $434 |
| 2026-09 | 4 | $225 |
| 2026-10 | 1 | $2K |
Which boards
Finance 27Politics 7Weather 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
82% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $14 (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio82%
Fills measured496
Window ends2026-08-30
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$14
Maker rebate$14
Taker rebate$0
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-05-19 → 2026-07-13
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$12K
Verified lifetime PnL-$41K
Verification gap-$53K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)