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SemyonMarmeladov
0x37e4728b3c4607fb2b3b205386bb1d1fb1a8c991
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 0% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 0%Verified PnL#1119 of 1130
Beats 84%Win rate#141 of 928
Beats 9%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#864 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board30
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-03-22
Last seen2026-09-11
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$1.45M
Verified lifetime PnL
$148.09MVolume
87%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-0.98%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$1.45M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $4,230only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$66.5Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$2,496
-0.98% ROI38.7% Win rate · n=900
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$12.96M · loses the most in Finance -$31.3K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$314.5KWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-24?Sports · No
- +$282.2KOregon vs. Texas Tech Red RaidersSports · Oregon
- +$204.8KWill Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-20?Sports · No
- +$196.9KWill Athletic Club win on 2026-02-15?Sports · Yes / No
- +$189.8KManchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Sports · Under
Top 5 losing markets
- -$150.0KSpread: Columbia Lions (-3.5)Sports · Columbia Lions
- -$120.0KColumbia Lions vs. Brown Bears: O/U 141.5Sports · Under
- -$117.5KHoly Cross Crusaders vs. Lafayette LeopardsSports · Holy Cross Crusaders
- -$114.0KReal Madrid CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5Sports · Under
- -$104.8KRoland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo ArnaldiSports · Frances Tiafoe
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 921 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$27.21M). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$1.45MVerified lifetime PnL
$2.00MBelow board-day sum
30Days on board
$554KBoard-day sum
—7-day PnL
—30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | $50K |
| 2026-04 | 1 | $47K |
| 2026-05 | 9 | $240K |
| 2026-06 | 8 | $123K |
| 2026-07 | 5 | $81K |
| 2026-08 | 2 | $3K |
| 2026-09 | 4 | $11K |
Which boards
Sports 28All markets 14Politics 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
97% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $66K (98% maker / 2% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio97%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$66K
Maker rebate$65K
Taker rebate$2K
Maker share98%
Taker share2%
Window2026-03-23 → 2026-09-25
Profit composition
Net negative (window)
Trade cash$0
Rebate$0
Net total$0
Window2026-10-05 → 2026-11-04
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$554K
Verified lifetime PnL-$1.45M
Verification gap-$2.00M
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)