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horiz0n
0x398dafc40ced1757f33a263d809f18666ba5c7c3
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 6% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 6%Verified PnL#1059 of 1130
Beats 19%30-day PnL#653 of 810
Beats 57%Win rate#394 of 928
Beats 7%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#879 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board24
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-30
Last seen2026-09-17
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$134K
Verified lifetime PnL
$11.45MVolume
69.2%Win rate · n=130
-1.17%PnL ÷ Volume
-$2K7-day PnL
-$2K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$133.8K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,031only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,281partial
Liquidity rewards$11.3K
-1.17% ROI45.3% Win rate · n=201
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Crypto +$28.9K · loses the most in Politics -$152.5K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$39.8KAndy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?Culture · Yes / No
- +$37.4KMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Finance · No / Yes
- +$26.8KWill Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Politics · Yes
- +$25.5KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Politics · No
- +$20.2KWill Bitcoin dip to $117K July 14–20?Crypto · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$89.0KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$58.4KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$40.0KStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Finance · No / Yes
- -$35.3KLord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?Culture · Yes
- -$32.9KThailand strikes Cambodia by Friday?Politics · No / Yes
Covers all 203 closed positions this wallet has. Includes 70 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$417.6K). Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$134KVerified lifetime PnL
$152KBelow board-day sum
24Days on board
$18KBoard-day sum
-$2K7-day PnL
-$2K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $456 |
| 2026-05 | 19 | $16K |
| 2026-06 | 3 | $1K |
| 2026-09 | 1 | $24 |
Which boards
Politics 17Crypto 11Finance 6Sports 3
Method breakdown
Execution stylenot measured yet
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
visible rebate $1K (97% maker / 3% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$1K
Maker rebate$1K
Taker rebate$32
Maker share97%
Taker share3%
Window2026-04-30 → 2026-07-09
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$18K
Verified lifetime PnL-$134K
Verification gap-$152K
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)