ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
EmeraldEdge
0x3eccb67e467ab5cade77e17fe8b407450d691d30
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 15% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 15%Verified PnL#976 of 1156
Beats 61%Win rate#371 of 963
Beats 5%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#948 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board30
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-04-29
Last seen2026-11-05
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$12K
Verified lifetime PnL
$672KVolume
71.4%Win rate (sample) · n=395
-1.93%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$12.0K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $95only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$388
-1.78% ROI56% Win rate · n=504
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$1,147 · loses the most in Politics -$906
Top 5 winning markets
- +$1,774Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports · Yes
- +$1,333Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?Politics · Yes
- +$1,062Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April meeting?Finance · No
- +$1,027Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Politics · Yes
- +$775Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Politics · No / Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$1,836MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Finance · Yes
- -$1,819Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?Politics · No
- -$1,159US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$1,048Will Norway win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
- -$922U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Politics · No / Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 109 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$13.7K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$12KVerified lifetime PnL
$18KBelow board-day sum
30Days on board
$6KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | $78 |
| 2026-05 | 10 | $3K |
| 2026-06 | 10 | $2K |
| 2026-07 | 6 | $671 |
| 2026-08 | 1 | $13 |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $3 |
Which boards
Mentions 12Sports 9Politics 7Tech 3
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
52% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mixed
Passive ratio52%
Fills measured479
Window ends2026-10-09
Window scope28 days
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$6K
Verified lifetime PnL-$12K
Verification gap-$18K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)