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0x45bbe85e001a1b1626e94349d45ad6a09f9241a7
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 31% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 31%Verified PnL#427 of 624
Beats 59%30-day PnL#243 of 594
Beats 65%Win rate#205 of 592
Beats 82%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#110 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board6
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-08-21
Last seen2026-09-19
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$12K
Verified lifetime PnL
$411KVolume
71.7%Win rate (sample) · n=399
2.67%PnL ÷ Volume
$4K7-day PnL
$11K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$12.0K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,405only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$290partial
Liquidity rewards$1,228
2.93% ROI66.8% Win rate · n=428
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$3,901
Top 5 winning markets
- +$1,066Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$726Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics · No / Yes
- +$654Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture · No
- +$609Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?Tech & science · Yes
- +$517Will "I Love Boosters" be nominated for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$503Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 20 hours?Culture · No
- -$371Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 18 hours?Culture · No
- -$312Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?Tech & science · No
- -$281Will Costco say "Dividend" during earnings call?Tech & science · Yes
- -$185Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?Tech & science · No / Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$12KVerified lifetime PnL
$12KEarned off the board
6Days on board
$319Board-day sum
$4K7-day PnL
$11K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 1 | $139 |
| 2026-09 | 5 | $180 |
Which boards
Tech 4Culture 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
56% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $290 (49% maker / 51% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mixed
Passive ratio56%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-07
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$290
Maker rebate$142
Taker rebate$148
Maker share49%
Taker share51%
Window2026-08-22 → 2026-10-30
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$319
Verified lifetime PnL$12K
Verification gap$12K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)