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0x4868c31e81040e002b41984842b84bae8923a1c1
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 69% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 69%Verified PnL#189 of 624
Beats 94%30-day PnL#32 of 594
Beats 7%Win rate#548 of 592
Beats 87%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#79 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board7
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-07-11
Last seen2026-09-26
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$196K
Verified lifetime PnL
$2.51MVolume
34.9%Win rate (sample) · n=396
3.45%PnL ÷ Volume
-$178K7-day PnL
$505K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$196.5K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $155only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,296partial
Liquidity rewards$11.2K
7.81% ROI17.3% Win rate · n=800
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$298.5K · loses the most in Crypto -$23.9K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$38.8KWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · No / Yes
- +$35.0KWill Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics · No / Yes
- +$18.1KWill Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics · No
- +$14.5KWill Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics · No
- +$14.2KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Finance · No / Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$20.0KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- -$5,816Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- -$5,193Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- -$5,079Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- -$4,775Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Finance · No / Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$196KVerified lifetime PnL
$186KEarned off the board
7Days on board
$11KBoard-day sum
-$178K7-day PnL
$505K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 1 | $202 |
| 2026-09 | 6 | $10K |
Which boards
Politics 6Crypto 1Tech 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
24% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $1K (80% maker / 20% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio24%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-02
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$1K
Maker rebate$1K
Taker rebate$254
Maker share80%
Taker share20%
Window2026-01-08 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$11K
Verified lifetime PnL$196K
Verification gap$186K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)