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0x496f76bd5cf4c2819c710ae90ed1c84b2dc6fa5d
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 43% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 43%Verified PnL#355 of 624
Beats 46%30-day PnL#317 of 594
Beats 20%Win rate#470 of 592
Beats 46%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#330 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board39
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-03
Last seen2026-09-20
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$35K
Verified lifetime PnL
$3.94MVolume
47.9%Win rate (sample) · n=399
0.82%PnL ÷ Volume
$1K7-day PnL
$5K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$34.9K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $14only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$6,529partial
Liquidity rewards$773
0.89% ROI21.8% Win rate · n=877
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$12.5K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$405Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on October 21?Weather · Yes
- +$288Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 24?Weather · Yes
- +$270Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on September 2?Weather · Yes
- +$268Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on September 23?Weather · Yes
- +$265Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on September 16?Weather · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$233Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on October 21?Weather · No
- -$229Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 21?Weather · No
- -$228Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 19?Weather · No
- -$166Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 21?Weather · No
- -$166Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C or below on August 30?Weather · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$35KVerified lifetime PnL
$32KEarned off the board
39Days on board
$2KBoard-day sum
$1K7-day PnL
$5K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 2 | $132 |
| 2026-06 | 3 | $155 |
| 2026-07 | 14 | $973 |
| 2026-08 | 8 | $591 |
| 2026-09 | 12 | $626 |
Which boards
Weather 39
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
82% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $7K (91% maker / 9% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio82%
Fills measured433
Window ends2026-09-28
Window scope0 days
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$7K
Maker rebate$6K
Taker rebate$598
Maker share91%
Taker share9%
Window2026-05-12 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Insufficient data
Trade cash$149K
Rebate$2K
Net total$152K
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$2K
Verified lifetime PnL$35K
Verification gap$32K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)