ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
Magamyman
0x4dfd481c16d9995b809780fd8a9808e8689f6e4a
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 90% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 90%Verified PnL#108 of 1130
Beats 35%30-day PnL#524 of 810
Beats 64%Win rate#326 of 928
Beats 98%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#11 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board14
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-27
Last seen2026-09-06
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$809K
Verified lifetime PnL
$4.64MVolume
73.2%Win rate · n=97
17.42%PnL ÷ Volume
$7257-day PnL
$1K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$808.6K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid$0only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)none seenpartial
Liquidity rewards$44
17.4% ROI69.6% Win rate · n=102
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$801.4K · loses the most in Finance -$895
Top 5 winning markets
- +$232.8KUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- +$165.2KUS strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$123.3KKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Politics · Yes
- +$86.9KIsrael strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Politics · No
- +$54.1KUS strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$37.4KIsrael strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?Politics · No
- -$35.2KUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$14.2KUS strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$7,675Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?Politics · Yes
- -$7,200Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
Covers all 102 closed positions this wallet has. Includes 5 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$19.1K). Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$809KVerified lifetime PnL
$804KEarned off the board
14Days on board
$5KBoard-day sum
$7257-day PnL
$1K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $200 |
| 2026-05 | 7 | $3K |
| 2026-06 | 3 | $594 |
| 2026-08 | 2 | $369 |
| 2026-09 | 1 | $107 |
Which boards
Politics 14
Method breakdown
Execution stylenot measured yet
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
visible rebate none in the activity feed
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
No visible rebate
Visible rebateNone seen
Window—
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$5K
Verified lifetime PnL$809K
Verification gap$804K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)