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0x4ffba5035905ddfd5e80db2fcbf83a7b4c62119d
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 38% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 38%Verified PnL#386 of 624
Beats 24%30-day PnL#446 of 594
Beats 2%Win rate#580 of 592
Beats 60%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#243 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board6
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-19
Last seen2026-05-11
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$26K
Verified lifetime PnL
$1.84MVolume
22.1%Win rate (sample) · n=384
1.39%PnL ÷ Volume
-$31030-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$25.7K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $366only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$84partial
Liquidity rewards$342
1.39% ROI21.6% Win rate · n=393
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$40.2K · loses the most in Finance -$11.3K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$9,104Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 22?Weather · Yes
- +$3,715Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 8?Weather · Yes / No
- +$2,453Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 9?Weather · Yes / No
- +$2,178Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 24?Weather · Yes / No
- +$2,045Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 19?Weather · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$4,714Will Fervo Energy not IPO before July 2026?Finance · No
- -$2,104Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.10 Week of May 11 2026?Finance · No / Yes
- -$1,050Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on April 29?Finance · No
- -$714Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.30 Week of May 11 2026?Finance · Yes
- -$658Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 7?Weather · No / Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$26KVerified lifetime PnL
$16KEarned off the board
6Days on board
$10KBoard-day sum
—7-day PnL
-$31030-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 3 | $6K |
| 2026-04 | 2 | $2K |
| 2026-05 | 1 | $2K |
Which boards
Weather 6
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
82% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $84 (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio82%
Fills measured497
Window ends2026-08-03
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$84
Maker rebate$84
Taker rebate$0
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-04-19 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$10K
Verified lifetime PnL$26K
Verification gap$16K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)