ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
0x50396e4d…
0x50396e4d9d11d38b0dcfd75280101a315f50946d
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 18% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 18%Verified PnL#947 of 1156
Beats 30%Win rate#664 of 963
Beats 13%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#866 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board38
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-04-16
Last seen2026-11-03
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$6K
Verified lifetime PnL
$1.43MVolume
55.3%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-0.43%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$5,777
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $947only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$318
-0.40% ROI50.3% Win rate · n=439
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$27.1K · loses the most in Weather -$297
Top 5 winning markets
- +$9,092Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Sports · Yes / No
- +$7,779Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Culture · Yes
- +$5,306MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Finance · No
- +$4,809Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Politics · No / Yes
- +$2,722Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$2,203Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?Finance · No
- -$1,570US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Politics · No
- -$1,508Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Politics · Yes
- -$1,484Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on ICEMAN?Culture · No
- -$1,008Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 39 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$57.3K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$6KVerified lifetime PnL
$20KBelow board-day sum
38Days on board
$14KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 4 | $2K |
| 2026-05 | 12 | $4K |
| 2026-06 | 4 | $2K |
| 2026-07 | 5 | $1K |
| 2026-08 | 10 | $4K |
| 2026-09 | 2 | $284 |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $5 |
Which boards
Politics 21Mentions 18Finance 2Sports 1Culture 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
76% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio76%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-29
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$14K
Verified lifetime PnL-$6K
Verification gap-$20K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)