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0x510904c9a58f5c5ad799a1b44947077564175e9c
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 78% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 78%Verified PnL#135 of 624
Beats 52%30-day PnL#281 of 594
Beats 27%Win rate#427 of 592
Beats 61%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#242 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board51
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-22
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$354K
Verified lifetime PnL
$25.26MVolume
51.8%Win rate (sample) · n=400
1.40%PnL ÷ Volume
$5K7-day PnL
$7K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$354.5K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $3,763only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$2,268partial
Liquidity rewards$5,699
1.40% ROI46.3% Win rate · n=447
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$306.3K · loses the most in Culture -$26.1K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$75.9KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- +$57.1KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$38.1KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$34.1KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$28.0KWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Sports · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$27.9KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$23.6KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$17.4KUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Politics · No
- -$14.1KSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Finance · No
- -$11.4KUS forces enter Iran by December 31?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$354KVerified lifetime PnL
$278KEarned off the board
51Days on board
$76KBoard-day sum
$5K7-day PnL
$7K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 2 | $919 |
| 2026-04 | 7 | $27K |
| 2026-05 | 11 | $7K |
| 2026-06 | 9 | $23K |
| 2026-07 | 9 | $3K |
| 2026-08 | 4 | $15K |
| 2026-09 | 9 | $378 |
Which boards
Politics 30Finance 8Tech 8Sports 6Mentions 4Culture 3All markets 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
84% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $2K (94% maker / 6% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio84%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-17
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$2K
Maker rebate$2K
Taker rebate$125
Maker share94%
Taker share6%
Window2026-01-09 → 2026-08-14
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$76K
Verified lifetime PnL$354K
Verification gap$278K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)