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0x5a45565906b8478fe456a0d313ce8839b3e7f628
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 8% of the 625 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 8%Verified PnL#571 of 625
Beats 26%30-day PnL#381 of 519
Beats 53%Win rate#261 of 566
Beats 8%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#539 of 592
Compared with the 625 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board51
Archive span201 days
First seen2026-03-23
Last seen2026-09-14
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$54K
Verified lifetime PnL
$5.49MVolume
65.8%Win rate (sample) · n=398
-0.95%PnL ÷ Volume
$2K7-day PnL
$4430-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-10-30
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$56.3K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $2,464only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$518partial
Liquidity rewards$323
-1.03% ROI53.8% Win rate · n=487
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$12.0K · loses the most in Culture -$16.4K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$11.3KWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$8,162Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$7,981Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$6,184Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$5,689Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?Culture · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$12.5KHawks vs. SunsSports · Suns
- -$7,174Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Finance · No
- -$7,059Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?Culture · Yes
- -$6,994Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Politics · No
- -$6,040Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?Culture · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-10-30
-$54KVerified lifetime PnL
$69KBelow board-day sum
51Days on board
$15KBoard-day sum
$2K7-day PnL
$4430-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 2 | $2K |
| 2026-05 | 3 | $923 |
| 2026-06 | 8 | $2K |
| 2026-07 | 13 | $3K |
| 2026-08 | 18 | $5K |
| 2026-09 | 7 | $3K |
Which boards
Finance 46Culture 6Sports 1Politics 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
21% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $518 (46% maker / 54% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio21%
Fills measured497
Window ends2026-10-11
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$518
Maker rebate$239
Taker rebate$279
Maker share46%
Taker share54%
Window2026-03-31 → 2026-10-21
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$15K
Verified lifetime PnL-$54K
Verification gap-$69K
Trade on Polymarket
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Archived 2026-10-30 · not refreshed since then · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-30 (201 snapshots)