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arbandy
0x5eb0cd907aa0b7b4df11552e817570e265ea5012
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 5% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 5%Verified PnL#1087 of 1156
Beats 62%Win rate#358 of 963
Beats 9%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#902 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board39
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-05-24
Last seen2026-11-05
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$156K
Verified lifetime PnL
$15.57MVolume
71.9%Win rate (sample) · n=398
-1.04%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$156.3K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $288only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$2,434
-1.00% ROI33.2% Win rate · n=862
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$109.3K · loses the most in Other -$8,392
Top 5 winning markets
- +$17.3KWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?Culture · Yes
- +$17.0KWill the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 2?Crypto · Yes
- +$14.6KBitcoin Up or Down on November 20?Crypto · Down
- +$13.7KWill A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?Culture · Yes
- +$11.8KWill Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$7,356Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1Other · Yes
- -$7,245Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?Crypto · Yes
- -$6,970Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Crypto · Yes
- -$5,826Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?Culture · Yes
- -$5,192Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?Crypto · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 464 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$456.1K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$156KVerified lifetime PnL
$179KBelow board-day sum
39Days on board
$23KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 1 | $125 |
| 2026-06 | 6 | $2K |
| 2026-07 | 5 | $3K |
| 2026-08 | 7 | $9K |
| 2026-09 | 16 | $3K |
| 2026-10 | 3 | $3K |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $2K |
Which boards
Crypto 20Culture 12Tech 8Finance 4Sports 2All markets 1Politics 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
79% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio79%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-29
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$23K
Verified lifetime PnL-$156K
Verification gap-$179K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)