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dpnd
0x5f211a24da4c005d9438a1ea269673b85ed0b376
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 40% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 40%Verified PnL#370 of 624
Beats 23%30-day PnL#457 of 594
Beats 2%Win rate#577 of 592
Beats 28%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#446 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board46
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-27
Last seen2026-09-23
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$29K
Verified lifetime PnL
$14.69MVolume
24.3%Win rate (sample) · n=400
0.19%PnL ÷ Volume
-$867-day PnL
-$69330-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$29.3K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,015only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$4,091partial
Liquidity rewards$2,005
0.20% ROI23.8% Win rate · n=408
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$74.6K · loses the most in Tech & science -$8,345
Top 5 winning markets
- +$6,920Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
- +$2,710Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 26?Weather · Yes
- +$2,023Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 30?Weather · Yes
- +$1,980Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?Other · Yes
- +$1,939Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 14?Weather · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$5,2102024 July hottest on record?Tech & science · No
- -$1,763Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?Culture · Yes
- -$1,685Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on April 5?Weather · Yes
- -$1,430Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Tech & science · No
- -$1,2342024 October hottest on record?Tech & science · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$29KVerified lifetime PnL
$10KEarned off the board
46Days on board
$19KBoard-day sum
-$867-day PnL
-$69330-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 2 | $4K |
| 2026-04 | 5 | $8K |
| 2026-05 | 14 | $4K |
| 2026-06 | 14 | $3K |
| 2026-07 | 1 | $50 |
| 2026-08 | 2 | $60 |
| 2026-09 | 8 | $522 |
Which boards
Weather 38Tech 5Finance 3Sports 1Politics 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
80% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $4K (99% maker / 1% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio80%
Fills measured497
Window ends2026-09-23
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$4K
Maker rebate$4K
Taker rebate$22
Maker share99%
Taker share1%
Window2026-03-29 → 2026-10-20
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$19K
Verified lifetime PnL$29K
Verification gap$10K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)