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0x686880eea810fa9141be46a1acec9eee41755198
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 41% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 41%Verified PnL#367 of 624
Beats 43%30-day PnL#339 of 594
Beats 23%Win rate#451 of 592
Beats 47%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#323 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board39
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-17
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$31K
Verified lifetime PnL
$3.36MVolume
49.6%Win rate (sample) · n=397
0.85%PnL ÷ Volume
-$1887-day PnL
$3K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$30.8K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $397only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$896partial
Liquidity rewards$434
0.92% ROI49.6% Win rate · n=397
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$26.1K · loses the most in Politics -$290
Top 5 winning markets
- +$1,303Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 1?Weather · Yes
- +$1,169Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 6?Weather · Yes
- +$1,067Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2?Weather · Yes
- +$1,041Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 12?Weather · Yes
- +$925Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 16?Weather · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$806Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31?Weather · No
- -$591Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 17?Weather · No
- -$454Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on May 28?Weather · No / Yes
- -$417Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2?Weather · Yes
- -$384Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 18?Weather · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$31KVerified lifetime PnL
$22KEarned off the board
39Days on board
$8KBoard-day sum
-$1887-day PnL
$3K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $3K |
| 2026-05 | 10 | $2K |
| 2026-06 | 8 | $2K |
| 2026-07 | 5 | $1K |
| 2026-08 | 9 | $893 |
| 2026-09 | 4 | $154 |
Which boards
Weather 38Sports 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
63% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $896 (84% maker / 16% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio63%
Fills measured498
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$896
Maker rebate$755
Taker rebate$141
Maker share84%
Taker share16%
Window2026-04-03 → 2026-10-11
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$8K
Verified lifetime PnL$31K
Verification gap$22K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)