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0x6fdd2bda5c031d551f588f176535f061a29a0b07
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 20% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 20%Verified PnL#497 of 624
Beats 54%30-day PnL#268 of 594
Beats 87%Win rate#76 of 592
Beats 20%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#491 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board7
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-09-23
Last seen2026-10-02
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$463
Verified lifetime PnL
$2.66MVolume
87%Win rate (sample) · n=400
0.01%PnL ÷ Volume
$1717-day PnL
$8K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$463
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,488only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$215partial
Liquidity rewards$212
0.02% ROI38.7% Win rate · n=899
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$35.3K · loses the most in Culture -$76.45
Top 5 winning markets
- +$7,603Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?Crypto · Yes
- +$5,653Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?Crypto · Yes / No
- +$5,255Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?Crypto · Yes
- +$4,018Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15?Sports · No
- +$3,350ETHBTC above 0.04 on Halloween?Crypto · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$1,689Will Lille OSC vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw?Sports · No
- -$1,566Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi?Crypto · Yes
- -$1,513Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi?Crypto · Yes
- -$1,375Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi?Crypto · Yes
- -$1,342Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi?Crypto · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$463Verified lifetime PnL
$10KBelow board-day sum
7Days on board
$11KBoard-day sum
$1717-day PnL
$8K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | 5 | $6K |
| 2026-10 | 2 | $4K |
Which boards
Weather 7
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
9% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $215 (10% maker / 90% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
aggressive (taker)
Passive ratio9%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Taker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$215
Maker rebate$21
Taker rebate$194
Maker share10%
Taker share90%
Window2026-04-13 → 2026-10-03
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$11K
Verified lifetime PnL$463
Verification gap-$10K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)