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0x708dba576d798c24215e267413503269fe39ea78
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 42% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 42%Verified PnL#360 of 624
Beats 46%30-day PnL#320 of 594
Beats 52%Win rate#279 of 592
Beats 65%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#212 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board31
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-26
Last seen2026-09-06
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$33K
Verified lifetime PnL
$1.76MVolume
65.4%Win rate (sample) · n=396
1.61%PnL ÷ Volume
$3K7-day PnL
$5K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$33.1K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $2,803only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$173partial
Liquidity rewards$134
1.88% ROI55.9% Win rate · n=463
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$20.5K · loses the most in Crypto -$121
Top 5 winning markets
- +$8,042Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Sports · Yes
- +$5,101US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · Yes
- +$4,194Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics · No
- +$3,868US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Politics · No
- +$3,235Will Trump say "Western Hemisphere" during the State of the Union address?Politics · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$16.1KUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Politics · Yes
- -$5,276Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?Politics · Yes
- -$4,290US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Politics · No
- -$1,712Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Politics · No
- -$1,400Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$33KVerified lifetime PnL
$23KEarned off the board
31Days on board
$10KBoard-day sum
$3K7-day PnL
$5K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | $810 |
| 2026-05 | 6 | $4K |
| 2026-06 | 7 | $3K |
| 2026-07 | 9 | $2K |
| 2026-08 | 4 | $238 |
| 2026-09 | 3 | $464 |
Which boards
Politics 17Culture 9Mentions 4Tech 1Weather 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
85% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $173 (46% maker / 54% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio85%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-27
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$173
Maker rebate$79
Taker rebate$94
Maker share46%
Taker share54%
Window2026-04-30 → 2026-10-27
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$10K
Verified lifetime PnL$33K
Verification gap$23K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)