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xcaiox
0x747837d9e1763345ab994e8652c8d0ba59bb4003
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 38% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 38%Verified PnL#692 of 1130
Beats 80%Win rate#178 of 928
Beats 95%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#41 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board36
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-28
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$13K
Verified lifetime PnL
$152KVolume
83.8%Win rate · n=253
8.70%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$13.2K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $89only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$23
8.70% ROI74.9% Win rate · n=283
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$11.9K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$8,502Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · No
- +$1,152Bolsonaro guilty?Politics · Yes
- +$766Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?Tech & science · No
- +$646Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Finance · Yes
- +$474Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$500Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?Tech & science · No
- -$260Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Finance · No
- -$214Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 3?Tech & science · No
- -$204OpenAI browser by October 31?Tech & science · No
- -$102Will Brazilian president Lula announce re-election run by December 31?Politics · No
Covers the 253 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 30 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$4,012). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$13KVerified lifetime PnL
$9KEarned off the board
36Days on board
$4KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | $189 |
| 2026-05 | 8 | $917 |
| 2026-06 | 6 | $1K |
| 2026-07 | 8 | $763 |
| 2026-08 | 6 | $399 |
| 2026-09 | 6 | $979 |
Which boards
Politics 19Tech 18
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
12% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
unknown (methods disagree)
Passive ratio12%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-30
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$4K
Verified lifetime PnL$13K
Verification gap$9K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)