ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boards6000K
0x78ed8966161ea0a22f0719b9c04391c6ac22ab3a
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 14% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 14%Verified PnL#535 of 624
Beats 33%30-day PnL#393 of 594
Beats 2%Win rate#578 of 592
Beats 9%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#560 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board12
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-27
Last seen2026-08-21
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$7K
Verified lifetime PnL
$801KVolume
24%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-0.86%PnL ÷ Volume
$9817-day PnL
$86930-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$6,920
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $292only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$222partial
Liquidity rewards$97
-0.86% ROI23.8% Win rate · n=403
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$2,595 · loses the most in Culture -$785
Top 5 winning markets
- +$1,835Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Sports · Yes
- +$1,551Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$1,303China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Politics · Yes
- +$1,273Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 23?Weather · Yes
- +$1,079Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 30?Weather · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$625Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Politics · No
- -$600Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?Politics · No
- -$588Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 13?Weather · Yes
- -$520Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 5?Weather · Yes
- -$515Will Trump praise Xi Jinping in August?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$7KVerified lifetime PnL
$8KBelow board-day sum
12Days on board
$1KBoard-day sum
$9817-day PnL
$86930-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 2 | $140 |
| 2026-06 | 2 | $303 |
| 2026-07 | 6 | $583 |
| 2026-08 | 2 | $63 |
Which boards
Weather 10Culture 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
49% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $222 (56% maker / 44% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mixed
Passive ratio49%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-06
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$222
Maker rebate$125
Taker rebate$97
Maker share56%
Taker share44%
Window2026-05-28 → 2026-10-19
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$1K
Verified lifetime PnL-$7K
Verification gap-$8K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)