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orac07
0x81ca49ad9806de2d92782b873bfa7fe051943b87
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 50% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 50%Verified PnL#563 of 1130
Beats 24%30-day PnL#611 of 810
Beats 25%Win rate#689 of 928
Beats 98%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#19 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board11
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-06-17
Last seen2026-09-27
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$35K
Verified lifetime PnL
$275KVolume
52.9%Win rate · n=70
12.46%PnL ÷ Volume
-$4037-day PnL
-$12230-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$34.8K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid$258
Rebates (maker + taker)$10partial
Liquidity rewards$0
12.7% ROI47.4% Win rate · n=78
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Tech & science +$34.8K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$8,069Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- +$7,620Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- +$5,850Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- +$5,597Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Tech & science · No
- +$3,494Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?Tech & science · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$2,140Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31?Tech & science · No / Yes
- -$2,102Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31?Tech & science · No / Yes
- -$1,696Will Google have the top AI model on October 31?Tech & science · Yes / No
- -$987Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31?Tech & science · Yes
- -$540Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30?Tech & science · Yes
Covers all 84 closed positions this wallet has. Includes 8 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$873). Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$35KVerified lifetime PnL
$25KEarned off the board
11Days on board
$9KBoard-day sum
-$4037-day PnL
-$12230-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 1 | $490 |
| 2026-07 | 2 | $86 |
| 2026-08 | 5 | $366 |
| 2026-09 | 3 | $8K |
Which boards
Tech 11
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
17% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $10 (0% maker / 100% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
unknown (methods disagree)
Passive ratio17%
Fills measured271
Window ends2026-09-27
Window scope577 days
Visible rebates
Taker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$10
Maker rebate$0
Taker rebate$10
Maker share0%
Taker share100%
Window2026-07-29 → 2026-07-29
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$9K
Verified lifetime PnL$35K
Verification gap$25K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)