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D7422D98eA0d5b6Dd942a8eEd1d2a61945bFd0
0x861f4149171db053c73382c40d2c7e5408fd177d
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 55% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 55%Verified PnL#516 of 1156
Beats 94%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#60 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board46
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-04-27
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$45K
Verified lifetime PnL
$691KVolume
45.5%Win rate · n=11
6.48%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$44.8K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,472only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$0
6.48% ROI— Win rate · n=11
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Crypto +$43.4K · loses the most in Culture -$1
Top 5 winning markets
- +$30.5KWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto · Yes
- +$12.9KWill Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto · Yes
- +$11.27Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto · Yes
- +$4.43Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceSports · Spain
- +$1.13Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3)Sports · Spirit
Top 5 losing markets
- -$2Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3)Sports · Spirit
- -$1Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Culture · No
- -$1Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5)Sports · FaZe
- -$1Will Team Spirit win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?Sports · Yes
- -$1Trail Blazers vs. PelicansSports · Trail Blazers
Covers all 11 closed positions this wallet has. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$45KVerified lifetime PnL
$36KBelow board-day sum
46Days on board
$81KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | $1K |
| 2026-05 | 10 | $17K |
| 2026-06 | 11 | $23K |
| 2026-07 | 11 | $15K |
| 2026-08 | 9 | $22K |
| 2026-09 | 3 | $2K |
Which boards
Crypto 46All markets 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
43% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
unknown (methods disagree)
Passive ratio43%
Fills measured494
Window ends2026-08-28
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$81K
Verified lifetime PnL$45K
Verification gap-$36K
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Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)