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LeopoldArschenbrenner
0x867149d900abf49270d9194900efc5e13e3ad4b7
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 16% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 16%Verified PnL#965 of 1156
Beats 63%Win rate#352 of 963
Beats 39%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#605 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board40
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-05-16
Last seen2026-09-20
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$10K
Verified lifetime PnL
$1.16MVolume
72.2%Win rate · n=36
0.52%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$10.3K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $30only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$729
-0.89% ROI70.3% Win rate · n=37
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$0.5 · loses the most in Politics -$21.1K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$3,298Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$1,118Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics · No
- +$880Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics · Yes / No
- +$865Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?Politics · No
- +$801Netanyahu out by June 30?Politics · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$6,190Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics · No / Yes
- -$5,805Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Politics · No
- -$5,309Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics · No / Yes
- -$5,077Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics · No
- -$4,194Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?Politics · No
Covers all 46 closed positions this wallet has. Includes 1 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$5,077). Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$10KVerified lifetime PnL
$24KBelow board-day sum
40Days on board
$13KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 3 | $834 |
| 2026-06 | 7 | $1K |
| 2026-07 | 11 | $3K |
| 2026-08 | 10 | $4K |
| 2026-09 | 9 | $4K |
Which boards
Politics 24Weather 22
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
98% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio98%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-28
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$13K
Verified lifetime PnL-$10K
Verification gap-$24K
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Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)