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pragmat1sm
0x88419a2d3cf90ccfbbfffac0aa48abdffba8c2d3
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 22% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 22%Verified PnL#881 of 1130
Beats 73%Win rate#248 of 928
Beats 9%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#861 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board9
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-09-11
Last seen2026-09-27
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$535
Verified lifetime PnL
$25KVolume
78.3%Win rate · n=23
-0.91%PnL ÷ Volume
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$535
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid$245
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$1
-2.10% ROI78.3% Win rate · n=23
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
No category in profit; worst is Tech & science -$535
Top 5 winning markets
- +$590Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026?Tech & science · No
- +$149Next DeepSeek Flash released by September 30, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- +$144Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Tech & science · Yes
- +$140Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech & science · Yes
- +$95.88Next DeepSeek Pro released by September 30, 2026?Tech & science · No / Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$679Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$510Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$248Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$188Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 14, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$184Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech & science · Yes
Covers all 47 closed positions this wallet has. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$535Verified lifetime PnL
$1KBelow board-day sum
9Days on board
$782Board-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | 9 | $782 |
Which boards
Tech 9
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
4% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
aggressive (taker)
Passive ratio4%
Fills measured203
Window ends2026-10-01
Window scope24 days
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$782
Verified lifetime PnL-$535
Verification gap-$1K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)