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← All boardsSecondWindCapital
0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 6% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 6%Verified PnL#582 of 624
Beats 73%30-day PnL#157 of 594
Beats 80%Win rate#118 of 592
Beats 11%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#548 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board51
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-30
Last seen2026-11-01
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$146K
Verified lifetime PnL
$25.46MVolume
82.4%Win rate · n=34
-0.57%PnL ÷ Volume
$12K7-day PnL
$37K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$146.0K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $12.2Konly the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$5,169partial
Liquidity rewards$1,473
-0.57% ROI35.4% Win rate · n=79
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$2.67M
Top 5 winning markets
- +$568.4KUFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Charles Oliveira
- +$486.4KKnicks vs. 76ersSports · Knicks
- +$445.6KRockets vs. LakersSports · Rockets
- +$381.9KWill Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?Sports · Yes
- +$315.1KAustralian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander ZverevSports · Alcaraz / Zverev
Top 5 losing markets
- -$19.2KWill Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?Sports · No
- -$5,496Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?Sports · Yes
- -$3,859Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics · No
- -$3,570Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak DjokovicSports · Alcaraz
- -$1,076Australian Open Men's: Eliot Spizzirri vs Jannik SinnerSports · Sinner / Spizzirri
Covers all 34 closed positions this wallet has. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$146KVerified lifetime PnL
$1.10MBelow board-day sum
51Days on board
$951KBoard-day sum
$12K7-day PnL
$37K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | $85K |
| 2026-04 | 6 | $140K |
| 2026-05 | 11 | $497K |
| 2026-06 | 8 | $61K |
| 2026-07 | 10 | $106K |
| 2026-08 | 6 | $18K |
| 2026-09 | 3 | $22K |
| 2026-10 | 5 | $20K |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $3K |
Which boards
Politics 40Culture 11All markets 9Sports 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
98% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $5K (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio98%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-05-28
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$5K
Maker rebate$5K
Taker rebate$0
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-04-10 → 2026-05-29
Profit composition
Net negative (window)
Trade cash$0
Rebate$0
Net total$0
Window2026-09-30 → 2026-10-30
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$951K
Verified lifetime PnL-$146K
Verification gap-$1.10M
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)