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0x8d5e7e32347212e53e57f7ea2c1a4fa35192c921
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 14% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 14%Verified PnL#534 of 624
Beats 47%30-day PnL#315 of 594
Beats 71%Win rate#170 of 592
Beats 6%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#577 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board13
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-09-06
Last seen2026-10-06
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$6K
Verified lifetime PnL
$428KVolume
75.3%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-1.45%PnL ÷ Volume
$5K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$6,149
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $26only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,029partial
Liquidity rewards$33.7K
-1.44% ROI33.4% Win rate · n=900
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$41.5K · loses the most in Crypto -$64
Top 5 winning markets
- +$2,871Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on October 5?Weather · No
- +$2,491Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on September 20?Weather · Yes / No
- +$1,476Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on September 20?Weather · No
- +$1,330Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 26?Weather · Yes
- +$1,278Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 6?Weather · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$3,664Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 19?Weather · No
- -$851Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on September 8?Weather · No
- -$802Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on September 5?Weather · No
- -$721Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 8?Weather · No / Yes
- -$668Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on October 4?Weather · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$6KVerified lifetime PnL
$17KBelow board-day sum
13Days on board
$10KBoard-day sum
—7-day PnL
$5K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | 9 | $3K |
| 2026-10 | 4 | $7K |
Which boards
Weather 13
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
83% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $1K (98% maker / 2% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
unknown (methods disagree)
Passive ratio83%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-01
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$1K
Maker rebate$1K
Taker rebate$20
Maker share98%
Taker share2%
Window2026-09-04 → 2026-10-06
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$10K
Verified lifetime PnL-$6K
Verification gap-$17K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)