ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsEscalateFund
0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10d76b9742d922d7dec4
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 70% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 70%Verified PnL#182 of 624
Beats 90%Win rate#55 of 592
Beats 65%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#214 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board46
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-09-11
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$209K
Verified lifetime PnL
$12.95MVolume
91.8%Win rate (sample) · n=400
1.61%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$208.7K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,048only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$217partial
Liquidity rewards$708
1.61% ROI78.8% Win rate · n=466
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$95.8K · loses the most in Sports -$56.5K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$73.1KWill Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
- +$43.5KWill Trump say 'crypto' or 'Bitcoin' during the 2025 State of the Union?Culture · No
- +$35.8KWill Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?Politics · No
- +$21.1KWill Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Culture · Yes
- +$16.8KWill Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?Culture · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$36.0KWill Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?Crypto · No
- -$33.5KWill Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by March 31?Crypto · No
- -$29.6KWill Trump say "fraud" during his Arizona rally?Politics · Yes
- -$27.1KWill Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025?Crypto · No
- -$25.9KWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$209KVerified lifetime PnL
$188KEarned off the board
46Days on board
$21KBoard-day sum
—7-day PnL
—30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $781 |
| 2026-05 | 16 | $12K |
| 2026-06 | 9 | $4K |
| 2026-07 | 9 | $3K |
| 2026-08 | 8 | $843 |
| 2026-09 | 1 | $50 |
Which boards
Finance 28Politics 12Sports 7Culture 4Crypto 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
91% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $217 (97% maker / 3% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio91%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-16
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$217
Maker rebate$210
Taker rebate$7
Maker share97%
Taker share3%
Window2026-04-08 → 2026-09-14
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$21K
Verified lifetime PnL$209K
Verification gap$188K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)