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← All boardscarlos484
0x9e7296fc4776144f60db9a5943ff2051696599c4
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 50% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 50%Verified PnL#308 of 624
Beats 75%30-day PnL#147 of 594
Beats 46%Win rate#320 of 592
Beats 95%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#31 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board29
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-07-22
Last seen2026-11-01
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$51K
Verified lifetime PnL
$712KVolume
62.2%Win rate · n=37
6.17%PnL ÷ Volume
$23K7-day PnL
$43K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$51.5K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $631only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$23partial
Liquidity rewards$82
7.23% ROI57.5% Win rate · n=40
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$50.4K · loses the most in Sports -$7,160
Top 5 winning markets
- +$28.2KUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics · No
- +$12.0KStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Finance · No
- +$6,148US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Politics · No
- +$3,041Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Politics · No
- +$2,434US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Politics · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$7,739Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
- -$2,025US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Politics · No
- -$1,079Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ETCrypto · Up
- -$701Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Tech & science · Yes
- -$471Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics · No
Covers all 38 closed positions this wallet has. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$51KVerified lifetime PnL
$8KBelow board-day sum
29Days on board
$60KBoard-day sum
$23K7-day PnL
$43K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 6 | $1K |
| 2026-08 | 16 | $7K |
| 2026-09 | 4 | $11K |
| 2026-10 | 2 | $24K |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $16K |
Which boards
Politics 28Finance 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
14% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $23 (0% maker / 100% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
unknown (methods disagree)
Passive ratio14%
Fills measured152
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scope152 days
Visible rebates
Taker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$23
Maker rebate$0
Taker rebate$23
Maker share0%
Taker share100%
Window2026-07-13 → 2026-07-19
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$60K
Verified lifetime PnL$51K
Verification gap-$8K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)