ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
Istaroth
0x9efda3d6354152901fc4706c3b1a9ce50b45ad00
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 1% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 1%Verified PnL#1110 of 1130
Beats 7%30-day PnL#753 of 810
Beats 13%Win rate#805 of 928
Beats 3%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#920 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board14
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-03-21
Last seen2026-11-03
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$803K
Verified lifetime PnL
$36.70MVolume
45.9%Win rate (sample) · n=399
-2.18%PnL ÷ Volume
-$16K7-day PnL
-$46K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$803.4K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $92only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$6,699partial
Liquidity rewards$294.9K
-2.19% ROI21.5% Win rate · n=862
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Finance +$72.8K · loses the most in Politics -$774.1K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$252.5KNo change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$142.8KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$28.3KUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Politics · No
- +$17.7KFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Politics · Yes
- +$12.5KWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Politics · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$697.8KUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · No
- -$109.6KUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Politics · No
- -$100.1KFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$98.2KFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$66.3KWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 461 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$12.7K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$803KVerified lifetime PnL
$808KBelow board-day sum
14Days on board
$5KBoard-day sum
-$16K7-day PnL
-$46K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 4 | $3K |
| 2026-04 | 2 | $472 |
| 2026-05 | 4 | $670 |
| 2026-07 | 1 | $26 |
| 2026-08 | 2 | $89 |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $197 |
Which boards
Finance 6Tech 3Politics 3Sports 1Weather 1
Method breakdown
Execution stylenot measured yet
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
visible rebate $7K (91% maker / 9% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$7K
Maker rebate$6K
Taker rebate$626
Maker share91%
Taker share9%
Window2026-04-18 → 2026-11-04
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$5K
Verified lifetime PnL-$803K
Verification gap-$808K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)