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MrMelonHead
0x9f66aa958734d9d5af35f5f19a276d23e84f3a50
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 40% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 40%Verified PnL#683 of 1156
Beats 52%Win rate#462 of 963
Beats 29%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#709 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board57
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-04-26
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$16K
Verified lifetime PnL
$2.77MVolume
66.6%Win rate (sample) · n=398
0.20%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$15.7K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $286only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$3
0.57% ROI66.4% Win rate · n=399
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$2,431 · loses the most in Tech & science -$2,777
Top 5 winning markets
- +$4,361Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?Politics · No
- +$2,688Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$2,352Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?Culture · No
- +$2,022US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Politics · No
- +$1,853UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)Sports · Sean Strickland
Top 5 losing markets
- -$3,601US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Politics · No / Yes
- -$3,458US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · No
- -$2,967US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Politics · No / Yes
- -$2,745US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Politics · No
- -$2,689Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 1 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$210). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$16KVerified lifetime PnL
$175Below board-day sum
57Days on board
$16KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | $376 |
| 2026-05 | 11 | $5K |
| 2026-06 | 15 | $7K |
| 2026-07 | 5 | $674 |
| 2026-08 | 13 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 11 | $1K |
Which boards
Politics 39Finance 11Culture 7Tech 5Sports 4Weather 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
0% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
unknown (methods disagree)
Passive ratio0%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-29
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$16K
Verified lifetime PnL$16K
Verification gap-$175
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)