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0xa2cd4ccda9a1f95949df7a3355c4c2daa0642ba0
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 3% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 3%Verified PnL#600 of 624
Beats 32%30-day PnL#400 of 594
Beats 4%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#590 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board56
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-01
Last seen2026-11-01
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$429K
Verified lifetime PnL
$22.79MVolume
88.9%Win rate · n=18
-1.88%PnL ÷ Volume
$14K7-day PnL
$45730-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$429.0K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $14.1Konly the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$2,406partial
Liquidity rewards$1,096
-1.88% ROI66.7% Win rate · n=24
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$171.9K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$135.5KUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)Sports · Max Holloway
- +$98.0KMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Finance · No / Yes
- +$87.6KWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics · No
- +$36.0KWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
- +$27.1KWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Politics · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$18.3KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
Covers all 18 closed positions this wallet has. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$429KVerified lifetime PnL
$785KBelow board-day sum
56Days on board
$356KBoard-day sum
$14K7-day PnL
$45730-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 15 | $14K |
| 2026-06 | 19 | $121K |
| 2026-07 | 5 | $144K |
| 2026-08 | 3 | $15K |
| 2026-09 | 7 | $24K |
| 2026-10 | 6 | $29K |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $9K |
Which boards
Culture 33Politics 11Tech 11Finance 9All markets 4Crypto 3Sports 2
Method breakdown
Execution stylenot measured yet
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
visible rebate $2K (66% maker / 34% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$2K
Maker rebate$2K
Taker rebate$824
Maker share66%
Taker share34%
Window2026-05-01 → 2026-08-19
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$356K
Verified lifetime PnL-$429K
Verification gap-$785K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)