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0xa59c570a9eca148da55f6e1f47a538c0c600bb62
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 65% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 65%Verified PnL#219 of 624
Beats 25%30-day PnL#442 of 594
Beats 2%Win rate#579 of 592
Beats 39%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#378 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board37
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-30
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$136K
Verified lifetime PnL
$23.24MVolume
22.2%Win rate (sample) · n=387
0.59%PnL ÷ Volume
-$327-day PnL
-$21830-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$136.0K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,037only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$349partial
Liquidity rewards$777
0.59% ROI22.2% Win rate · n=387
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$441.4K · loses the most in Crypto -$1,901
Top 5 winning markets
- +$18.8KWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$17.4KWill Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?Culture · Yes
- +$15.7KWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?Culture · Yes
- +$15.1KWill Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$14.8KWill Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?Culture · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$8,448US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · No
- -$5,907Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21?Culture · Yes
- -$5,825Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 25–May 2?Culture · Yes
- -$5,555Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?Culture · Yes
- -$5,361Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 18–25?Culture · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$136KVerified lifetime PnL
$129KEarned off the board
37Days on board
$7KBoard-day sum
-$327-day PnL
-$21830-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $2K |
| 2026-05 | 5 | $2K |
| 2026-07 | 11 | $1K |
| 2026-08 | 12 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 8 | $451 |
Which boards
Culture 35Politics 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
32% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $349 (51% maker / 49% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio32%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$349
Maker rebate$178
Taker rebate$171
Maker share51%
Taker share49%
Window2026-04-04 → 2026-10-03
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$7K
Verified lifetime PnL$136K
Verification gap$129K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)