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risk-manager
0xa61ef8773ec2e821962306ca87d4b57e39ff0abd
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 76% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 76%Verified PnL#264 of 1130
Beats 42%Win rate#533 of 928
Beats 22%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#739 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board67
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-27
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$207K
Verified lifetime PnL
$699.08MVolume
61.6%Win rate (sample) · n=383
0.03%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$206.8K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $5only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$30.8Kpartial
0.03% ROI61.6% Win rate · n=383
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$206.0K · loses the most in Finance -$20.4K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$202.1KFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- +$145.3KFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- +$111.8KNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Politics · Yes / No
- +$65.0KFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- +$55.1KWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Politics · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$153.7KFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$109.3KFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$78.2KFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?Politics · Yes / No
- -$68.0KFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- -$62.8KFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?Politics · Yes / No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$207KVerified lifetime PnL
$172KEarned off the board
67Days on board
$35KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 4 | $1K |
| 2026-05 | 19 | $8K |
| 2026-06 | 14 | $5K |
| 2026-07 | 16 | $15K |
| 2026-08 | 9 | $4K |
| 2026-09 | 5 | $839 |
Which boards
Politics 30Finance 27Sports 13Culture 10Crypto 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
100% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio100%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-28
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$35K
Verified lifetime PnL$207K
Verification gap$172K
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)