ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
michi1
0xa89518aca5a633a79ad1e9737209c9689f83faac
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 52% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 52%Verified PnL#549 of 1156
Beats 31%30-day PnL#554 of 812
Beats 30%Win rate#671 of 963
Beats 83%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#164 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board15
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-03-19
Last seen2026-10-04
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$38K
Verified lifetime PnL
$1.20MVolume
54.9%Win rate (sample) · n=390
3.12%PnL ÷ Volume
$4827-day PnL
$78130-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$37.9K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $877only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$199partial
Liquidity rewards$2,673
3.17% ROI54.9% Win rate · n=390
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$34.0K · loses the most in Finance -$194
Top 5 winning markets
- +$3,757Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 21?Weather · Yes
- +$2,036Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on March 28?Weather · Yes
- +$1,942Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?Weather · Yes
- +$1,817Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11?Weather · No
- +$1,709Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 30?Weather · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$504Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25?Crypto · Yes
- -$331Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?Weather · No
- -$291Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ETCrypto · Down
- -$240Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?Crypto · Yes
- -$235Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?Crypto · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$38KVerified lifetime PnL
$29KEarned off the board
15Days on board
$8KBoard-day sum
$4827-day PnL
$78130-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 3 | $3K |
| 2026-04 | 3 | $305 |
| 2026-05 | 1 | $2K |
| 2026-06 | 1 | $127 |
| 2026-08 | 3 | $642 |
| 2026-09 | 2 | $1K |
| 2026-10 | 2 | $2K |
Which boards
Weather 15
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
64% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $199 (92% maker / 8% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio64%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$199
Maker rebate$184
Taker rebate$15
Maker share92%
Taker share8%
Window2026-01-18 → 2026-10-11
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$8K
Verified lifetime PnL$38K
Verification gap$29K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)