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0xae2e04fe…
0xae2e04fe9d8ccba5e45ba17ddf9dfbef498c40ad
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 45% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 45%Verified PnL#613 of 1130
Beats 28%30-day PnL#579 of 810
Beats 3%Win rate#898 of 928
Beats 83%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#154 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board5
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-05-02
Last seen2026-05-18
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$26K
Verified lifetime PnL
$818KVolume
29.9%Win rate (sample) · n=398
3.21%PnL ÷ Volume
$1130-day PnL
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$26.3K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $95only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$99partial
Liquidity rewards$15
3.21% ROI28% Win rate · n=425
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$20.2K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$17.4KWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 4?Weather · Yes / No
- +$4,675Will Fervo Energy not IPO before July 2026?Finance · Yes
- +$2,155Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.10 Week of May 11 2026?Finance · No / Yes
- +$1,880Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10?Weather · No / Yes
- +$1,744Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10?Weather · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$2,047Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 8?Weather · Yes
- -$1,272Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be at least 5m square kilometers?Weather · Yes
- -$955Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 23?Weather · No
- -$582Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 23?Weather · Yes
- -$390Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7?Weather · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 27 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$1,016). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$26KVerified lifetime PnL
$20KEarned off the board
5Days on board
$6KBoard-day sum
—7-day PnL
$1130-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 5 | $6K |
Which boards
Weather 4Finance 1
Method breakdown
Execution stylenot measured yet
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
visible rebate $99 (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$99
Maker rebate$99
Taker rebate$0
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-04-24 → 2026-05-21
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$6K
Verified lifetime PnL$26K
Verification gap$20K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)