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0xb16dc3169b090c54d1f73321919a03485ad6f064
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 24% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 24%Verified PnL#870 of 1156
#1Win rate#1 of 963
Beats 5%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#943 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board16
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-07-22
Last seen2026-09-27
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$128
Verified lifetime PnL
$41KVolume
100%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-1.77%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$128
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $57only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$0
0.31% ROI58.7% Win rate · n=682
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Tech & science +$2,033
Top 5 winning markets
- +$839Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Tech & science · Yes
- +$323Next Kimi K model released by September 30, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- +$188Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?Tech & science · Yes
- +$137Next Kimi K model released by August 31, 2026?Tech & science · No
- +$110Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?Tech & science · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$45.88Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 282 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$3,043). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$128Verified lifetime PnL
$1KBelow board-day sum
16Days on board
$1KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 3 | $81 |
| 2026-08 | 6 | $448 |
| 2026-09 | 7 | $694 |
Which boards
Finance 10Tech 7
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
49% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mixed
Passive ratio49%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-27
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$1K
Verified lifetime PnL$128
Verification gap-$1K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)